-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       log:  c:\growth\isqfinal\ot_5dems.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:   7 Apr 2006, 16:44:08
Analysis do-file c:\growth\isqfinal\ot_5dems run on  7 Apr 2006 at 16:44:08

. /*analyses for Oneal and Tir's "Does the Diversionary Use of Force Threaten t
> he
> Democratic Peace," International Studies Quarterly, regarding major democraci
> es:
> 4-7-2006*/
. 
. set mem 120m
(122880k)

. 
. use c:\growth\isqfinal\otdirect
(Oneal&Tir ISQ re diversionary theory, directed dyads, w/ Chiozza&Goemans ldr d
> at)

. 
. desc

Contains data from c:\growth\isqfinal\otdirect.dta
  obs:       919,530                          Oneal&Tir ISQ re diversionary
                                                theory, directed dyads, w/
                                                Chiozza&Goemans ldr dat
 vars:            31                          7 Apr 2006 16:41
 size:    68,045,220 (45.9% of memory free)   (_dta has notes)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              storage  display     value
variable name   type   format      label      variable label
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
state           int    %8.0g                  focal state, COW code
target          int    %8.0g                  potential target state, COW code
year            int    %8.0g                  
democ_st        byte   %8.0g                  state's DEMOC-AUTOC Polity score
democ_tgt       byte   %8.0g                  target's DEMOC-AUTOC Polity
                                                score
depend          float  %9.0g                  state's bilateral trade
                                                w/target/state's GDP
allies          byte   %8.0g                  =1 if allied
lncaprat        float  %9.0g                  ln(state's CINC/target/s CINC
dircont         byte   %9.0g                  =1 if land border
distance        int    %8.0g                  capital-to-capital distance
numstate        int    %8.0g                  number of states in system
finitsda        byte   %9.0g                  =1 if fatal dispute in year
                                                t+1, originator + side A
pyfatA          int    %8.0g                  Time since last finitsda
_spline1        float  %9.0g                  (pyfatA-k1) cubed
_spline2        float  %9.0g                  (pyfatA-k2) cubed
_spline3        float  %9.0g                  (pyfatA-k3) cubed
leadid_st       float  %9.0g                * revised id for leader of state
autoc_st_cg     byte   %9.0g                * Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr
                                                1995
mixed_st_cg     byte   %9.0g                * Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and
                                                Gurr 1995
democ_st_cg     byte   %9.0g                * Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr
                                                1995
leadid_tgt      float  %9.0g                * revised id for leader of target
autoc_tgt_cg    byte   %9.0g                * Autocracy. See Jaggers and Gurr
                                                1995
mixed_tgt_cg    byte   %9.0g                * Mixed Regime. See Jaggers and
                                                Gurr 1995
democ_tgt_cg    byte   %9.0g                * Democracy. See Jaggers and Gurr
                                                1995
rgdp96_st       float  %9.0g                  real 1990$ gdp per capita
grow_st         float  %9.0g                  =((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)
                                                -1
rgdp96_tgt      float  %9.0g                  real 1990$ gdp per capita
grow_tgt        float  %9.0g                  =((rgdp96pc/rgdp96pc[_n-2])^.5)
                                                -1
majpower        byte   %9.0g                  state is COW major power
elect_st        byte   %9.0g                  election in state, year t+1
elect_tg        byte   %9.0g                  election in target, year t+1
                                            * indicated variables have notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorted by:  state  target  year  

. summ

    Variable |       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
       state |    919530    439.9403    246.4354          2        950
      target |    919530    439.9467    246.4363          2        950
        year |    919530    1973.206    19.23036       1918       1998
    democ_st |    919530   -.3267898       7.534        -10         10
   democ_tgt |    919530   -.3243744    7.534432        -10         10
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
      depend |    856313    .0022735    .0187338          0   4.297579
      allies |    919530    .0699912    .2551323          0          1
    lncaprat |    919302    .0005342    2.556379  -10.21899   10.21899
     dircont |    919530    .0417974    .2001261          0          1
    distance |    919530     4687.65    2711.032          5      12347
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
    numstate |    919530    139.3208     39.4261         49        187
    finitsda |    919530    .0003186    .0178477          0          1
      pyfatA |    919530    33.18228    32.87813          0        183
    _spline1 |    919530   -37478.74    73825.37  -504096.5          0
    _spline2 |    919530   -75673.46    162569.1   -1135201          0
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
    _spline3 |    919530   -104444.7    246805.6   -1790654          0
   leadid_st |    919530    1911.632    878.9031         25       3041
 autoc_st_cg |    919530    .3827205    .4860512          0          1
 mixed_st_cg |    919530      .30302    .4595641          0          1
 democ_st_cg |    919530    .3142595    .4642205          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
  leadid_tgt |    919530    1911.656    878.9072         25       3041
autoc_tgt_cg |    919530    .3826085    .4860242          0          1
mixed_tgt_cg |    919530    .3030059     .459558          0          1
democ_tgt_cg |    919530    .3143856     .464271          0          1
   rgdp96_st |    869368    5582.096    6256.156   220.0399   46064.72
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
     grow_st |    828628    .0162994     .047805  -.2822851   .5209076
  rgdp96_tgt |    869384    5583.028    6256.756   220.0399   46064.72
    grow_tgt |    828644    .0163004    .0478086  -.2822851   .5209076
    majpower |    919530    .0447098    .2066661          0          1
    elect_st |    914247    .0875868    .2826932          0          1
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------
    elect_tg |    882691    .0907373    .2872353          0          1

. 
. /*make minimum value of caprat positive and generate square*/
. replace lncaprat=lncaprat+10.3
(919302 real changes made)

. gen lncapsq=lncaprat^2
(228 missing values generated)

. 
. /*make sure growth not measured across leaders*/
. #del ;
delimiter now ;
. sort state target year;

. quietly by state target: gen grow_stldr=grow_st if (leadid_st==leadid_st[_n-1
> ] &
>       leadid_st==leadid_st[_n-2]);

. quietly by state target: gen grow_tgtldr=grow_tgt if (leadid_tgt==leadid_tgt[
> _n-1] &
>       leadid_tgt==leadid_tgt[_n-2]);

. #del cr
delimiter now cr
. 
. gen logdist=ln(distance)

. 
. drop if depend>1
(63244 observations deleted)

. 
. drop if grow_stldr==.
(290199 observations deleted)

. /*drop exactly zero growth b/c result of interpol of rgdppc*/
. drop if grow_stldr==0
(56342 observations deleted)

. 
. /*create control for number of states in system for non-rel dyads*/
. gen systsize=-ln(numstate) if ~(dircont==1 | majpower==1)
(40574 missing values generated)

. replace systsize=0 if systsize==.
(40574 real changes made)

. 
. gen dyadid=(1000*state)+target

. 
. /*all dyads, fatal disputes in year t+1, originator + side A*/
. #del ;
delimiter now ;
. gen demXgrow=grow_stldr if democ_st_cg==1;
(367962 missing values generated)

. replace demXgrow=0 if demXgrow==. & grow_stldr~=.;
(367962 real changes made)

. logit finitsda democ_st democ_tgt depend demXgrow lncaprat lncapsq allies dir
> cont
>       logdist majpower systsize pyfatA _spl*, nolog cluster(dyadid);

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =     509604
                                                  Wald chi2(15)   =     546.46
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudo-likelihood = -834.32949                Pseudo R2       =     0.3603

                           (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
    finitsda |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    democ_st |  -.0213057   .0164314    -1.30   0.195    -.0535107    .0108994
   democ_tgt |   .0130628   .0163649     0.80   0.425    -.0190117    .0451374
      depend |  -21.05296    10.6383    -1.98   0.048    -41.90365   -.2022785
    demXgrow |  -13.96235   3.862787    -3.61   0.000    -21.53327   -6.391425
    lncaprat |   .7433764   .4274582     1.74   0.082    -.0944262    1.581179
     lncapsq |  -.0417323   .0203444    -2.05   0.040    -.0816065   -.0018581
      allies |    -.12976   .2184441    -0.59   0.552    -.5579025    .2983826
     dircont |   1.484881   .5210333     2.85   0.004     .4636747    2.506088
     logdist |  -.3196151   .1096684    -2.91   0.004    -.5345611    -.104669
    majpower |    .663408    .415125     1.60   0.110     -.150222    1.477038
    systsize |   .6075333   .1116887     5.44   0.000     .3886274    .8264391
      pyfatA |  -.4966086   .0634859    -7.82   0.000    -.6210386   -.3721785
    _spline1 |  -.0021431   .0003806    -5.63   0.000    -.0028889   -.0013972
    _spline2 |   .0009848   .0002088     4.72   0.000     .0005756    .0013941
    _spline3 |  -.0000692   .0000347    -2.00   0.046    -.0001372   -1.25e-06
       _cons |  -4.384743   2.417021    -1.81   0.070    -9.122017    .3525314
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

note: 72 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

.   /*GROWTH EFFECT FOR PROMINENT DEMOCRACIES*/
> gen usgrowth=grow_stldr if state==2 & democ_st_cg==1;
(505536 missing values generated)

. replace usgrowth=0 if usgrowth==. & state~=2;
(505536 real changes made)

. gen gbgrowth=grow_stldr if state==200 & democ_st_cg==1;
(505934 missing values generated)

. replace gbgrowth=0 if gbgrowth==. & state~=200;
(505934 real changes made)

. gen isrgrowth=grow_stldr if state==666 & democ_st_cg==1;
(506619 missing values generated)

. replace isrgrowth=0 if isrgrowth==. & state~=666;
(506619 real changes made)

. gen indgrowth=grow_stldr if state==750 & democ_st_cg==1;
(506292 missing values generated)

. replace indgrowth=0 if indgrowth==. & state~=750;
(506292 real changes made)

. /*prominent democs as targets*/
> gen ustgtgrow=grow_tgtldr if target==2 & democ_st_cg==1;
(509038 missing values generated)

. replace ustgtgrow=0 if ustgtgrow==. & target~=2;
(505685 real changes made)

. gen gbtgtgrow=grow_tgtldr if target==200 & democ_st_cg==1;
(509095 missing values generated)

. replace gbtgtgrow=0 if gbtgtgrow==. & target~=200;
(505600 real changes made)

. gen frtgtgrow=grow_tgtldr if target==220 & democ_st_cg==1;
(508983 missing values generated)

. replace frtgtgrow=0 if frtgtgrow==. & target~=220;
(505592 real changes made)

. gen isrtgtgrow=grow_tgtldr if target==666 & democ_st_cg==1;
(509199 missing values generated)

. replace isrtgtgrow=0 if isrtgtgrow==. & target~=666;
(506127 real changes made)

. gen indtgtgrow=grow_tgtldr if target==750 & democ_st_cg==1;
(509168 missing values generated)

. replace indtgtgrow=0 if indtgtgrow==. & target~=750;
(506098 real changes made)

. /*include indicators only for prominent democs as initiators*/
> gen us=1 if state==2;
(505536 missing values generated)

. replace us=0 if us==.;
(505536 real changes made)

. gen gb=1 if state==200;
(505934 missing values generated)

. replace gb=0 if gb==.;
(505934 real changes made)

. gen fr=1 if state==200;
(505934 missing values generated)

. replace fr=0 if fr==.;
(505934 real changes made)

. gen israel=1 if state==666;
(506619 missing values generated)

. replace israel=0 if israel==.;
(506619 real changes made)

. gen india=1 if state==750;
(506292 missing values generated)

. replace india=0 if india==.;
(506292 real changes made)

. compress;
us was float now byte
gb was float now byte
fr was float now byte
israel was float now byte
india was float now byte

. /*5 prominent democs, reported in text only*/
> #del ;
delimiter now ;
. logit finitsda democ_st democ_tgt depend usgrowth gbgrowth isrgrowth indgrowt
> h
>       lncaprat lncapsq allies dircont logdist us gb israel india majpower sys
> tsize
>       pyfatA _spl*, nolog cluster(dyadid);

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =     509604
                                                  Wald chi2(22)   =     953.48
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudo-likelihood = -828.22602                Pseudo R2       =     0.3650

                           (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
    finitsda |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    democ_st |  -.0525699   .0188181    -2.79   0.005    -.0894527   -.0156871
   democ_tgt |   .0175114    .016622     1.05   0.292    -.0150671      .05009
      depend |  -20.40466   10.43837    -1.95   0.051     -40.8635    .0541781
    usgrowth |   10.70592   2.463322     4.35   0.000     5.877902    15.53395
    gbgrowth |  -45.91808   32.69817    -1.40   0.160    -110.0053    18.16915
   isrgrowth |  -22.62864   10.85695    -2.08   0.037    -43.90788   -1.349405
   indgrowth |    4.12951   5.554337     0.74   0.457     -6.75679    15.01581
    lncaprat |    .763892   .4237634     1.80   0.071    -.0666689    1.594453
     lncapsq |   -.044184   .0202195    -2.19   0.029    -.0838135   -.0045544
      allies |  -.0773253   .2213364    -0.35   0.727    -.5111368    .3564861
     dircont |   1.380379   .4861896     2.84   0.005     .4274648    2.333293
     logdist |  -.3149756   .1092508    -2.88   0.004    -.5291032    -.100848
          us |  -.0864832   1.075629    -0.08   0.936    -2.194678    2.021711
          gb |   .7074822   .7515856     0.94   0.347    -.7655985    2.180563
      israel |   2.160048   .6287844     3.44   0.001     .9276533    3.392443
       india |   2.131286   .6138214     3.47   0.001     .9282181    3.334354
    majpower |   .7620367   .4325863     1.76   0.078    -.0858168     1.60989
    systsize |   .6189285   .1075611     5.75   0.000     .4081126    .8297443
      pyfatA |  -.4859208   .0653265    -7.44   0.000    -.6139584   -.3578832
    _spline1 |  -.0020768   .0003907    -5.32   0.000    -.0028426   -.0013111
    _spline2 |   .0009476   .0002143     4.42   0.000     .0005276    .0013676
    _spline3 |  -.0000632   .0000354    -1.78   0.075    -.0001326    6.31e-06
       _cons |  -4.545634   2.391347    -1.90   0.057    -9.232587    .1413198
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

note: 62 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. /*add growth of 5 democs when targets*/
> logit finitsda democ_st democ_tgt depend usgrowth gbgrowth isrgrowth indgrowt
> h
>       ustgtgrow frtgtgrow gbtgtgrow isrtgtgrow indtgtgrow lncaprat lncapsq al
> lies
>       dircont logdist us gb fr israel india majpower systsize pyfatA _spl*, n
> olog
>       cluster(dyadid);
note: fr dropped due to collinearity

Logit estimates                                   Number of obs   =     493223
                                                  Wald chi2(27)   =     972.91
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log pseudo-likelihood = -695.36164                Pseudo R2       =     0.3689

                           (standard errors adjusted for clustering on dyadid)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
    finitsda |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    democ_st |  -.0327951   .0200109    -1.64   0.101    -.0720158    .0064256
   democ_tgt |  -.0135972   .0156434    -0.87   0.385    -.0442577    .0170633
      depend |  -23.08022   13.37239    -1.73   0.084    -49.28963    3.129193
    usgrowth |   10.21489   2.384404     4.28   0.000     5.541543    14.88824
    gbgrowth |  -47.00888   33.07891    -1.42   0.155    -111.8424     17.8246
   isrgrowth |  -22.70703   11.76809    -1.93   0.054    -45.77206    .3579929
   indgrowth |   4.105951   5.749119     0.71   0.475    -7.162115    15.37402
   ustgtgrow |   1.819241   11.38103     0.16   0.873    -20.48717    24.12566
   frtgtgrow |  -114.2501   23.98316    -4.76   0.000    -161.2562   -67.24396
   gbtgtgrow |  -63.85844   10.79868    -5.91   0.000    -85.02346   -42.69341
  isrtgtgrow |   -14.6889   3.689232    -3.98   0.000    -21.91966    -7.45814
  indtgtgrow |  -9.443311   16.94912    -0.56   0.577    -42.66297    23.77635
    lncaprat |   1.428729   .5228862     2.73   0.006     .4038913    2.453568
     lncapsq |  -.0712567   .0249685    -2.85   0.004     -.120194   -.0223193
      allies |  -.0812789   .2325965    -0.35   0.727    -.5371597    .3746018
     dircont |   1.245208   .5448296     2.29   0.022     .1773618    2.313055
     logdist |  -.3414033   .1302157    -2.62   0.009    -.5966213   -.0861852
          us |  -.1313416   1.087446    -0.12   0.904    -2.262697    2.000014
          gb |   .6228251   .7461027     0.83   0.404    -.8395093    2.085159
      israel |   1.879013    .611945     3.07   0.002     .6796227    3.078403
       india |   1.881759   .6409781     2.94   0.003     .6254651    3.138053
    majpower |   .5656743   .4854154     1.17   0.244    -.3857224    1.517071
    systsize |   .7487289   .1221983     6.13   0.000     .5092246    .9882333
      pyfatA |  -.4638686   .0761726    -6.09   0.000    -.6131643    -.314573
    _spline1 |  -.0020395   .0004579    -4.45   0.000     -.002937   -.0011421
    _spline2 |   .0009516   .0002501     3.80   0.000     .0004614    .0014419
    _spline3 |  -.0000744   .0000401    -1.85   0.064     -.000153    4.24e-06
       _cons |  -8.331248   2.984087    -2.79   0.005    -14.17995   -2.482545
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

note: 240 failures and 0 successes completely determined.

. exit;

end of do-file
       log:  c:\growth\isqfinal\ot_5dems.log
  log type:  text
 closed on:   7 Apr 2006, 16:45:32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
